SOF · RMUVECTOR · 2026-08-26
Analytical Brief — 08/26/2026 05:02
Tensions around Iran are decreasing: Iran and Oman are discussing a temporary corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. is returning personnel, WTI oil falls by 4.58%. CIA Director Ratcliffe's visit to Russia (T3) — a possible channel for secret negotiations on Ukraine. Ukrainian front: massive UAV strikes on Kharkiv and Odesa, unrest in Kerch — drone escalation. Markets: S&P rises, gold gains, oil gets cheaper. Macro: 10Y-2Y spread positive (0.47), no recession signal, but VIX rose, inflation is high. ECB is preparing a rate hike in September. The strategic balance is shifting from confrontation to bargaining: the U.S. is forced to negotiate with Iran and Russia, focusing on China. Ukraine risks becoming a bargaining chip.
Tensions around Iran are decreasing: Iran and Oman are discussing a temporary corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. is returning personnel, WTI oil falls by 4.58%. CIA Director Ratcliffe's visit to Russia (T3) — a possible channel for secret negotiations on Ukraine. Ukrainian front: massive UAV strikes on Kharkiv and Odesa, unrest in Kerch — drone escalation. Markets: S&P rises, gold gains, oil gets cheaper. Macro: 10Y-2Y spread positive (0.47), no recession signal, but VIX rose, inflation is high. ECB is preparing a rate hike in September. The strategic balance is shifting from confrontation to bargaining: the U.S. is forced to negotiate with Iran and Russia, focusing on China. Ukraine risks becoming a bargaining chip.
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